Okay, we'd better have another one of those exciting tiebreaker discussions, since the AFC #4 seed could get real weird if both Mexico and RD lose this week.
I am using the latest NFL protocols as a guide. This is my interpretation. If anybody else has a different view, or can find where our differing tiebreaking procedures are, let's hear it.
http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingproceduresIf all five teams in the hunt finish 6-8 (BIR over MEX, NY over SAC, MON over RD), my read is that NY/NJ would be the wildcard.
Team W/L Div Conf H2H
NY 6-8 4-2 6-6 MON
BIR 6-8 3-3 5-7 MEX
MEX 6-8 3-4 5-6 NY
RD 6-8 2-5 5-6 NY, BIR
MON 6-8 3-4 5-6 RD, BIR
TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Step 1: Apply division tiebreaker to get down to one team per division. From this step, NY advances in the East because of its better divisional record. Montreal advances in the West because of its better record in games between the clubs (3-1 over Mexico and RD.)
Step 2: H2H. NY owns the H2H tiebreak over Montreal.
NY is the tiebreak winner.
If Mexico, RD, Montreal, and Birmingham finish 6-8 (BIR over MEX, SAC over NY, MON over RD), my read is that Birmingham would be the wildcard.
Step 1: Division tiebreaker sends Mexico ahead on common games: Mexico was 1-1 against the EFC opponents in common with Montreal (Rhein and Frankfurt) while Montreal was 0-2 against.
Step 2: H2H. Birmingham owns the H2H over Mexico.
Birmingham is the tiebreak winner.
If Mexico and RD both finish 7-7 (MEX over BIR, RD over MON), it will depend on strength of victory.
Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
Step 1. MEX and RD split their season series
Step 2. MEX and RD would both have a 3-4 divisional record
Step 3: MEX and RD have identical common-games records. Their schedules are virtually identical, and both lost their games against Frankfurt and Berlin.
Step 4: MEX and RD would both have a 6-5 conference record
Step 5: Strength of victory.
Based on the current net points figures available, it appears that RD would need a pretty massive blowout in order to overtake Mexico. So RD's best hope is to beat Montreal and see Birmingham beat Mexico. Birmingham has a shot at the playoffs, so they should be playing to win.