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Author Topic: Playoff race - Week 13  (Read 2627 times)
Paul-London
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« on: April 26, 2010, 04:47:54 AM »

AFC

AFC East

Orlando have won the AFC East, theres a huge outside chance to make the playoffs if NY or Birmingham win and Mex/Ral lose but its huge odds.  Orlando will have to settle for the #2 seed.

AFC West

Great job by San Antonio catching up with Sacramento, IF the Surge lose in Week 14 and the Riders win then the Riders get the AFC West crown and also the top seed.  Will Sacramento rest their starting QB who is probable ?  Huge game.

Sacramento have the easier game, at home against New York whereas San Antonio travel to Europe to face Rhein who are good at home.

The playoff race is exciting here.  The last playoff spot comes down to Raleigh or Mexico.  Mexico travel away to Birmingham (4-2 at home, Mex 1-5 on the road) and Raleigh are at home to Montreal.  Mex/Ral are 1-1 in games played between them, in the division they are both 5-5, conference Mexico have the slight edge.

EFC

EFC East

Close in the EFC East, Frankfurt are one game ahead of Berlin, if they lose and Berlin win they'll be tied on games played (1-1) and at the moment they are tied in conference games (7-3).  Frankfurt need to beat old foes London and Berlin travel to eractic Amsterdam.

EFC West

Exciting finish in the EFC, Scotland are one game ahead of Paris and one game behind Scotland  IF Scotland lost and Austria won then they are 1-1 head to head, it then goes to the conference record, the DarkKnights would win the EFC West because of a better conference record.

If Austria however lose then they are out of the playoffs as Paris (2-0) would have won both the head-to-head games.

Paris need to win to make the playoffs in what is the game of the week.

Austria are 3-3 on the road which is respectable, Paris 4-2 at home but have lost their last two games, Austria have won their last 3.

It all comes down to the Week 14 clash !

Injuries have really hurt the playoff teams.  Sacramento have lost WR Ronald Bellamy for a few weeks, the Claymores lost their best d-lineman, Tyler King who had 34 tackles and 12 sacks, a major injury means he'll miss the rest of the season.  Paris's leading rusher Loliko Bongo-Wanga is now out for a few weeks, will they turn to former starting HB Thunder Collins ? 
« Last Edit: April 26, 2010, 04:50:30 AM by Paul-London » Logged
Mario ADK
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« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2010, 05:56:10 AM »

From what i can see from the stats Paris is much better than their record shows.
Not to make the playoffs would be disappointing for Austria but the inconsistency of both QBs speak for itself and would be to blame.

I am pleased with the best O-line in the league and like my D-lines run-stopping but the DBs are a huge concern.

Collins is as good - or even better - than Bongo so if i had money i would bet it on Paris, not Austria.

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Former GM Austria DarkKnights (FWL-season 21 is 12th Season as GM):
GM of the Year - Season #2; #15
FWL-BOWL-Champion - Season #3; #15
EFC Champion - Season #3; #15
EFC WEST Champion - Season #2; #3; #4; #5; #13; #14; #15
jcompton-Orlando
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« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2010, 11:08:03 AM »

Okay, we'd better have another one of those exciting tiebreaker discussions, since the AFC #4 seed could get real weird if both Mexico and RD lose this week.

I am using the latest NFL protocols as a guide. This is my interpretation. If anybody else has a different view, or can find where our differing tiebreaking procedures are, let's hear it. http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

If all five teams in the hunt finish 6-8 (BIR over MEX, NY over SAC, MON over RD), my read is that NY/NJ would be the wildcard.

Code:
Team    W/L    Div   Conf   H2H

NY 6-8    4-2    6-6   MON
BIR     6-8    3-3    5-7   MEX
MEX 6-8    3-4    5-6   NY
RD 6-8    2-5    5-6   NY, BIR
MON     6-8    3-4    5-6   RD, BIR

Quote
TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

   1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
   2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

Step 1: Apply division tiebreaker to get down to one team per division. From this step, NY advances in the East because of its better divisional record. Montreal advances in the West because of its better record in games between the clubs (3-1 over Mexico and RD.)

Step 2: H2H. NY owns the H2H tiebreak over Montreal.

NY is the tiebreak winner.

If Mexico, RD, Montreal, and Birmingham finish 6-8 (BIR over MEX, SAC over NY, MON over RD), my read is that Birmingham would be the wildcard.

Step 1: Division tiebreaker sends Mexico ahead on common games: Mexico was 1-1 against the EFC opponents in common with Montreal (Rhein and Frankfurt) while Montreal was 0-2 against.
Step 2: H2H. Birmingham owns the H2H over Mexico.

Birmingham is the tiebreak winner.

If Mexico and RD both finish 7-7 (MEX over BIR, RD over MON), it will depend on strength of victory.

Quote
Two Clubs

   1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
   2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
   3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
   4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
   5. Strength of victory.

Step 1. MEX and RD split their season series
Step 2. MEX and RD would both have a 3-4 divisional record
Step 3: MEX and RD have identical common-games records. Their schedules are virtually identical, and both lost their games against Frankfurt and Berlin.
Step 4: MEX and RD would both have a 6-5 conference record
Step 5: Strength of victory.

Based on the current net points figures available, it appears that RD would need a pretty massive blowout in order to overtake Mexico. So RD's best hope is to beat Montreal and see Birmingham beat Mexico. Birmingham has a shot at the playoffs, so they should be playing to win.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2010, 11:40:49 AM by jcompton-Orlando » Logged

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jcompton-Orlando
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« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2010, 11:17:10 AM »

EFC East is pretty simple. If Frankfurt wins, they're the division champs. If Berlin wins and Frankfurt loses, Berlin is the division champs based on superior conference record.

Austria's situation is pretty amazing. They can finish with the division title and #2 seed, the #4 seed, or out of the playoffs entirely.

And, by the way, a hat tip to NY/NJ and Birmingham for staying in the race after I had thought they were dead meat. True, their small playoff hopes are as much due to Ohio's first-to-worst performance this year and the reluctance of Mexico and RD to decisively take care of business, but they've done their part late in the season.

Also pretty amazing is the way San Antonio has stayed on the Surge's heels, to the point that what looked like the league's most dominant squad can't clinch the division without this season-ending head-to-head contest for all the marbles.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2010, 11:18:58 AM by jcompton-Orlando » Logged

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jcompton-Orlando
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« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2010, 11:44:57 AM »

I had to update the post above when I realized that Montreal would also finish 6-8 if RD finishes 6-8. It's getting very confusing.

Moral of the story: Paul, if both RD and Mexico lose this week, you should allow a few extra days before the playoffs so we have enough time to argue about just what the hell is supposed to happen.
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Mark-skyhawks
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« Reply #5 on: April 26, 2010, 12:48:48 PM »

I have to say I think The AFC being so close is pretty awesome!!!!!! makes the final week so much more exciting,
Soooo many eventualities that can occur on the last day of games, no team can win and know they have secured the final spot with that win alone, all depends on what happens in the other game as well, Also pretty cool that its the 4 out of the 5 contenders are all playing each other as well, as if it was planned!!!! (Abit Like the Soccer in England with Chelsea having to play Liverpool on the last day with the result greatly effecting both teams final position, and who will win the league!)  Wink
« Last Edit: April 26, 2010, 12:52:19 PM by Mark-skyhawks » Logged

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jcompton-Orlando
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« Reply #6 on: April 26, 2010, 03:29:07 PM »

Yeah, usually the last couple of weeks of the season have an increasing number of squads resting players because there's nothing in particular to play for. This week, really only my Thunder can make a strong case for a roster inversion, since the only advantage to winning would be to try to establish homefield advantage over a low EFC seed for the FWL Bowl. Everybody else in sniffing distance of the playoffs has to go all-out or risk tumbling from position.

Editorially, I think the Surge may end up really regretting their decision to take a halfway position on their roster move--moving probable league MVP Kory Chapman to a backup role but keeping the other key contributors on the field. You have to like Chapman's chances in a close game to bust a game-changing play and score the win that seals the top seed. Instead, the lack of a run game put the ball in Drew Olson's hands, the Thunder defense teed off on him and tweaked his knee, and in overtime a hard tackle puts their starting WR/PR on the shelf for at least two games. Result--the Surge are practically compelled to play all hands against NY/NJ, lest a further depleted squad surrender the upset and allow the Riders to sneak past, knocking the presumptive FWL Bowl favorites down to the #3 seed. Andre Woodson didn't look game-ready, so it seems like you send Olson out and risk further injury. (Or put in a waiver claim on Rob "Miracles" Adamson! When did Berlin cut this lucky charm?)
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jcompton-Orlando
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« Reply #7 on: April 26, 2010, 05:32:58 PM »

At least it's easier to identify teams which are definitely in the playoffs, in one form or another.

AFC
Orlando Thunder (AFC East champs and #2 seed)
Sacramento Surge (AFC West champs and #1 seed, or AFC West runner-up and #3 seed)
San Antonio Riders (AFC West champs and #1 seed, or AFC West runner-up and #3 seed)

EFC
Frankfurt Galaxy (EFC East champs and #1 seed, or EFC East runner-up and #3 seed)
Berlin Thunder (EFC East champs and #1 seed, or EFC East runner-up and #3 seed)
Scottish Claymores (EFC West champs and #2 seed, or EFC West runner-up and #4 seed)
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Paul-London
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« Reply #8 on: April 27, 2010, 04:31:42 AM »

I had to update the post above when I realized that Montreal would also finish 6-8 if RD finishes 6-8. It's getting very confusing.

Moral of the story: Paul, if both RD and Mexico lose this week, you should allow a few extra days before the playoffs so we have enough time to argue about just what the hell is supposed to happen.

Yep good point ! I'll wait a few days to make sure everyones okay with the playoff teams. Should be an exciting final week.

The Riders have been on fire recently destroying Sacramento and winning a big game against Montreal.

Tough for TC this week, does he risk Olsen but then he might risk the top spot.  Decisions decisions !!
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jcompton-Orlando
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« Reply #9 on: April 27, 2010, 12:18:30 PM »

Oh, BTW, it only seems like Montreal hasn't missed the playoffs in ages, but they finished 5-9 and out of the playoffs in Season 19.
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TC-Sacramento
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« Reply #10 on: April 28, 2010, 01:39:16 AM »

In retrospect, I should have played Chapman against Orlando...I was afraid his injury would be worsened and I couldn't risk not having him for the playoffs. 

Crazy as it sounds, I did briefly consider signing Adamson...he was the Surge QB for a few seasons.  Smiley

It was a tough decision this week on Olsen, but if we win the game we have home field throughout the playoffs which is extremely important.  Olsen gives my team the best shot to win so he'll play against NY this week.

The injuries to LB Adjei a few weeks ago and to WR Bellamy last week (thanks Jason) are going to have an impact...just hope we can minimize the effects.

Best of luck to all in the playoff hunt!
TC
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jcompton-Orlando
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« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2010, 09:19:44 AM »

Crazy as it sounds, I did briefly consider signing Adamson...he was the Surge QB for a few seasons.  Smiley

Seriously, for the teams that fell just short this week, I have to wonder if having that kind of lucky charm on the squad might not have made the difference.

One throw, one touchdown, one victory! That's compelling stuff!

Quote
The injuries to LB Adjei a few weeks ago and to WR Bellamy last week (thanks Jason)

You'd do the same for me!

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Paul-London
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« Reply #12 on: April 28, 2010, 12:57:46 PM »

Yeah funny how it works out, that touchdown strike for Berlin in overtime was huge when you see the end of season tables, Berlin now have the top seed in the EFC, funny how one play can change everything !
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