Race for the playoffs - After Week 13

[Paul-London]

AFC

1 - Mexico 11-2
2 - Birmingham 9-4

3 - Ohio 8-5
4 - New York 8-5

If Ohio and NY are tied then Ohio are the 3rd seed (the teams are 1-1 against each other but Ohio will have a better conference record)

If the playoffs were tomorrow...

New York at Mexico
Ohio at Birmingham

EFC

1 - Amsterdam 13-0
2 - Scotland 11-2
3 - Austria 8-5

4 - London 7-6 - 1-0 over Rhein

     Rhein 6-7 - 0-1 against London, 2-0 over Frankfurt
     Frankfurt 6-7 - 0-2 against Rhein

If the playoffs were tomorrow...

Austria at Scotland
Rhe/Lon/Fra at Amsterdam

[jcompton-Orlando]

If Ohio and NY are tied then Ohio are the 3rd seed (the teams are 1-1 against each other but Ohio will have a better conference record)

Perhaps more importantly, if Orlando strings together back-to-back upsets and knocks off Birmingham, I'm pretty sure both NY and Ohio (if they won) would take the tiebreaker over the Fire. (NY won the season series, no question there, but I think Ohio would beat them further down the list as well.)

3 - Austria 8-5

4 - London 7-6 - 1-0 over Rhein

If Austria loses and London wins, London will be #3.

[Paul-London]

Yeah i amended the preview, if Birm lose and Ohio or NY win they get the division, NY are 2-0 against Birmingham and Ohio are 1-1 but have a better division record

But if Fra, Lon and Rhe are 7-7 then what ?  I've beaten Rhein but not Frankfurt (As if i'm 7-7 Fra would have beaten me in Week 14) but Fra are 0-2 against Rhe ?

When its 3 or more with the same record doesnt it go to conference record ?  I would be 7-5, Rhein 6-6 and Frankfurt 5-6 (unfortunately they play one less conference game) so i presume i would go through ?

I'll see what the computer comes up with once Week 14 is played.  Either way whoever makes the playoffs at 7-7 will then have to face 13-0 (or 14-0 possibly) Amsterdam ! 

[jcompton-Orlando]

When its 3 or more with the same record doesnt it go to conference record ?  I would be 7-5, Rhein 6-6 and Frankfurt 5-6 (unfortunately they play one less conference game) so i presume i would go through ?

That's my read on it, yeah.

The current NFL rules on the subject...

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

With all teams 7-7, the division tiebreak knocks out Frankfurt, because Rhein swept the season series.

So for Frankfurt to get in, they need the win AND a Rhein loss, otherwise the vagaries of the tiebreak system put London over the top. I don't see a way for Rhein to get in, despite the edge over Frankfurt.

[Paul-London]

Cheers, i'll get confirmation once Week 14 is played as i know the computer can mess it up.  Hope it doesnt come to that but want to make sure its correct.

I think whoever makes it like i say wont be in the playoffs for long

[jcompton-Orlando]

There is a certain air of inevitability about this season, yes...

[Marco_Frankfurt]

hmm I am not that sure but wasnt there a rule of common games ?

Then  Rhein would win the 3-way 7-7 tie, beause tehy are 2-1, London would be 1-1 and Frankfurt would be 1-2.

Edit: just have seen this is the next tiebraker after conference games

Hmm interesting to see what rules the game takes into account

[Paul-London]

So if its conference games next, i'm looking pretty good for that then ?

[jcompton-Orlando]

Yeah. My read is:

LON makes playoffs with a win or tie or Rhein win (needs win and AUS loss for #3 seed)
FRA makes playoffs with a win and Rhein loss (#4 seed)

[Paul-London]

Thats what i thought.  Still looks like it could go any direction, Rhein are at home but face Montreal who despite their record (many close losses) are still a good team

Me away at Frankfurt i dont think i'll win.  A 7-7 playoff team will be lambs to the slaughter against Amsterdam !

[jcompton-Orlando]

In the AFC East, the way I figure it each of the three playoff qualifiers can finish anywhere between #2 and #4--the difference between hosting a playoff game against a division rival, or having to travel to Mexico City in the wild card round...

If Birmingham can hold at home against the Thunder (or both Ohio and NY/NJ lose), they are the #2 team, flat out.

As Paul mentioned, if BIR, OHIO, and NY/NJ all win, then we have

BIR #2
OHIO #3 (conference record tiebreak over NY/NJ)
NY/NJ #4

If the Fire lose and one of the other two teams win, however...

OHIO win and NY/NJ loss:

OHIO wins the division (#2 seed--divisional record tiebreak over BIR)
BIR is #3
NY/NJ is #4

NY/NJ win and OHIO loss:

NY/NJ wins the division (#2 seed--head-to-head tiebreak over BIR)
BIR is #3
OHIO is #4

OHIO and NY/NJ both win:
NY/NJ wins the division (#2 seed--.750 record in games among the three teams)
OHIO is #3 (divisional record tiebreak over BIR)
BIR is #4