Week 12 preview: Week of decisions......

[jcompton-Orlando]

Well. Lytle's fall and rise in London has made for interesting storytelling, but all things being equal I think it would have worked out far better if I'd just hung on to the 1st round pick. That year's draft wasn't terribly QB-rich, but Burford would have still been on the board when my turn came around.

[Paul-London]

I'm surprised no one has tried prising one of the Skyhawk QB's away.  Former starter Jake Delhomme tied the FWL record of 6 straight 3000 yard seasons to begin his career and then was injured the following year and has been benched since then.

Also Travis Browns two year record of 30 td's and 9 ints in two years is amazing, last year he threw 15 td's and 3 ints and this year 15 td's and 6 ints .  I think Marks going to rest him for the final 3 games.

With Raleigh so weak a team could offer the Skyhawks a decent trade in exchange for Brown.  I think hes one of the best young QB's in the league, if i didnt have Rob Adamson as my backup i would try to prise Brown away from Raleigh.

Burford is like Brown, a great QB on a weak side.  When Burford was benched earlier this season for Ward i think he could have maybe been had quite cheaply.  I love the stories in the FWL, eg David Ward, career backup with Frankfurt, took over from Case (just like Fiedler took over from Marino) and faced an impossible task replacing a legend and flopped.  Came back with Birmingham for one year but i think this season hes shown his true colours and his great season the year before just a one-off

[jcompton-Orlando]

Except Fiedler (the real one) really wasn't a flop except in the PR department. The guy had a 6x% winning percentage as a Miami starter.

Anyway, the other reason I think we're seeing people steer away from older QBs is that if you don't know for sure you're going to be competitive late, it's better to know if you've got a "keeper" at the position. I'm sure some people were wondering why I started Lytle (who's maybe got another good year or two in him... maybe) when the statistically inferior but young Symons was sitting there. Just to see. It's worked out well, but if things had gone south, I'd have been smarter playing Symons than rotating Bonner and Abrew in again.

[Paul-London]

Yeah Fiedler was actually quite successful winning games but i wouldnt say he was a great QB, had a good supporting cast. 

I think theres some very talented young QB's in the league, BJ Symons you have, Berlin have the untested 1st round pick Nate Hybl waiting in the wings and Barcelona have former 1st rounder Chad Hutchinson.  I thought Hutchinson would have got the job once Kitna retired (Hutch started for Kitna in the playoffs when Kitna was out injured) but Craig came in instead and  has played very well despite a poor year this season

Barcelonas main problem this year is a terrible rushing attack, since HB Chad Dukes was benched the teams lost 5 straight

[Niki]

Thats what i love about the league, you still get random things, eg Charlie Ward and his terrible INT and then look at Travis Brown, worst INT amongst starting QB's but a very very good young QB.

INT is important, that saves you from making interceptions. Brown started last year after his first QB was injuried. Think he did it so good was mainly because he had some very good WR.

an interception is not only the fault of a QB, it is a combination of QB and WR. At the begining of the season my QB had a QB rating of 75 or something like that. Played a couple of games with Hamilton (he had ok stats but was not able to win). Since week 6 I play with Rylance again and his stats are for the season:

233 158 67.8% 1793 12 td 1 int 106.0

Interesting fact is that rylance had never more then 5 int during a season.

Looking at teh FA QB's, I think they will only be picked up when a team has a injuriied QB

[Paul-London]

Dont get me wrong for a QB i think INT is the most important stat, when i saw young Bouman as QB3 with Austria and great INT i thought hes the QB for me !

But like i say what i love about the game is that even a QB who has 85 INT can play well.  I do think its perhaps his WR's but i also think that its one of those nice 'quirks' of the game.  I mean Charlie Ward had decent WR's but he was Rookie of the Year, went to an FWL Bowl and was All-FWL 3 times.  His INT back then was terrible.

As for Rylance i like to think after his benching he just came back and played so well to take the job back.  Bit like the NFL when that happens to teams.  Rylance started off a bit hot/cold, after the benching though hes been red hot.  Rylance is a good QB as he doesnt make many turnovers

[JH-SanAntonio]

There isn't much market for older QBs here vs. real world because:


1) Who knows if your veteran backup will be there next year?

In the real world, you know how long a guy will continue playing, barring major injuries. Here, we have a +/- situation... few players are beaten to a pulp, but they DO retire randomly after7.


2) Younger QBs are a substantial investment.

Random retirements mean that you must have a guy developing to fill the old guy's shoes, or be left without a credible QB if/when your old guy randomly quits.  That means that, in camp, you have to balance between what your young guy needs (usually primary QB stats, like IN/DI/ST) and what your ageing old guy needs (usually his IN/DI are well developed, he needs physical stats improved as he's bleeding out in those areas).  That means that your younger guy is an investment; generally he's a early-round pick with a few years of training behind him, and not something you want to throw away.


3) Older QBs need maintenance.

I'll use my team as an example, assuming my backup (Daft) picked up the Nobel Prize for physics and retired.

QB Bishop, Michael..7 80 78 80 91 76 83 95 81 -starter
QB Van Dyke, Ryan.2 77 75 74 90 72 81 89 76 -new backup

So, I pick up:

QB Kubiak, Jim......10 71 73 75 90 64 86 93 90

Kubiak will bleed 2-3 points next season out of SP/AC/AG/ST/HA/EN.  Next season, assuming he didn't retire, he'd be trapped in the pocket, prone to getting hit, and have hands barely over 60 so he'll fumble quite a bit.  His ST will be serviceable, at 87-88 if I don't train it up, but he wouldn't really come in and stretch defenses much.  Only his EN will remain high.

This means that, if I want him to be much use, I'll need to worry about training him up- along with maintaining Bishop and possibly developing Van Dyke.  Then, worry that that the next season he'll be gone. Alternately, I could draft a young guy whose abilities gel with my current guys, who'll be there the next season,  and keep the points he gets in camp....


4) You just never know how good he'll be.

In the real world, good players tend to remain productive when they change teams, after they've eclipsed the team's learning curve.  Here, it's more random, particularly for "middling" players.  On top of that, the intangibles that make a real life player great aren't here, really, just a stat line.  I can grab a guy who threw for 3800 yards and 20 TDs each of the last 7 years, have him pop in and throw on pace for a 1600 yard 9 TD season.  It's risky.


JH